Bella Vista, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS64 KTSA 150514
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through Friday.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Friday night and continue through
   Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Saturday
   night. Severe weather potential exists.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Another dry, unseasonably warm, and humid mid-October day is in store
today as potent mid/upper-level ridging shifts northward over southeast
OK and western AR by this afternoon. Very little, if any at all, cloud
cover will help temperatures warm up into the mid-80s for most
locations (10-15 degrees above seasonal average) with a few locations
reaching the upper-80s west of Highway 75 in OK. High pressure across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions will maintain light to
moderate southeast/east winds through the daytime.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue through most of the
remaining workweek as persisting ridging remains intact over eastern
OK and western AR. Changes in the weather pattern will finally
commence beginning on Friday as a robust upper-level low over the
Rockies lifts northeastward across the Northern Plains late Thursday
night into Friday morning. As a result, a surface low will develop
across eastern CO and scoot eastward, dragging a cold front across
the Plains during the daytime Friday. Southerly low-level winds are
expected to increase and become gusty ahead of the cold front Friday
afternoon, eventually aiding in advecting a plume of low-level
moisture into the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning.
Sustained wind speeds between 15-20 mph, with gusts 30-35 mph will be
common during the daytime Friday, especially across northeast OK and
northwest AR.

Deterministic models show scattered thunderstorms developing along
and just ahead of the advancing cold front across central KS and
western OK by late Friday afternoon or early evening. There are still
some differences in model solutions on timing of the cold front, but
in general the front is expected to move into the forecast area late
Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon and exit south and east
of the area Saturday night. As instability, bulk shear, moisture,
and lift all begin to increase Friday night into Saturday morning
along and ahead of the front, the severe thunderstorm threat will
also increase. Though isolated severe storms will be possible along
and ahead of the approaching front late Friday night into Saturday
morning, most probable severe timing threat looks to occur Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, when models suggest instability,
shear, and lift all maximize along and ahead of the frontal boundary
across far eastern OK, southeast OK, and western AR. All severe modes
look possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the two main
threats. Still lots of uncertainty of how everything evolves,
especially if there is ongoing convection Saturday morning. But
ingredients will be in place for scattered strong to severe storms
through the daytime. Better details to come in later updates.

Temperatures will be a bit of a roller coaster from the end of this
week into the early part of next week. Unseasonably warm daytime and
nighttime temperatures will pursue through Saturday, with Friday
being the warmest day as strong warm air advection occurs ahead of
the approaching cold front. Temperatures on Saturday will be tricky
and highly dependent on speed/location of the cold front as well as
how quickly clouds clear out behind the frontal boundary. A quicker-
moving front will result in cooler temperatures than what is
currently forecast. Temperatures will cool to near or just below
seasonal averages Saturday night, Sunday, and into Sunday night
behind the cold front. Upper-level ridging will quickly build in
over the region during the daytime on Monday with models showing
modest to strong warm air advection occurring in the low-levels
ahead of another approaching storm system. This, in theory, will
warm temperatures back up above seasonal average on Monday and again
on Tuesday before the next cold front pushes through late Tuesday
night into Wednesday of next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR SKC conditions expected at all sites through the forecast period
with generally a light southeast wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  61  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   88  58  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   85  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  56  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   85  60  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   85  58  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
F10   86  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   85  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...69